Learning Outcomes
After completing this article, you will be able to identify the primary characteristics of predictive (waterfall) project management, recognize the typical phases and control points, and distinguish predictive from adaptive life cycle approaches. You will also understand the importance of sequential planning, the role of baselines, and how phase structure supports project delivery in a PMP exam context.
PMP Syllabus
For PMP, you are required to understand the key features of predictive project management and its phases. Focus your revision on:
- Defining predictive project management and its core attributes (linear/sequential planning, fixed scope, detailed upfront planning).
- Identifying the sequential project phases and their purpose (e.g., feasibility, design, build, test, deploy, close).
- Understanding how baselines and change control are managed in predictive approaches.
- Comparing predictive, incremental, adaptive, and hybrid life cycles.
- Recognizing the significance of phase gates and decision/approval points.
- Differentiating roles and responsibilities in predictive projects (project manager, sponsor, team).
- Knowing when predictive approaches are preferred (low-uncertainty, well-defined requirements).
- Recognizing the implications for scope, schedule, cost, and quality management.
Test Your Knowledge
Attempt these questions before reading this article. If you find some difficult or cannot remember the answers, remember to look more closely at that area during your revision.
-
Which of the following is a defining characteristic of predictive project management?
- Scope is redefined each phase
- Detailed planning is performed before significant work begins
- Continuous delivery of product increments
- Teams self-select work with minimal central planning
-
In predictive life cycles, which statement best describes project phases?
- Phases are always executed in parallel
- Phases have clear deliverables and decision points before moving to the next
- Phases are ad hoc and change through repeated cycles
- Phases have no defined order
-
What is the main purpose of phase gating (or a phase gate) in a predictive project?
- To authorize scope changes based on daily feedback
- To obtain formal approval before proceeding to the next phase
- To accelerate project delivery by skipping milestones
- To select the next agile delivery team
-
When is predictive project management the preferred approach?
- When high change and uncertainty are expected
- When requirements are unclear and expected to change
- When requirements are stable, low risk, and fully defined up front
- When only senior management has project visibility
Introduction
Predictive project management, traditionally called the "waterfall" approach, is used when project requirements are clearly defined, the path to execution is well understood, and change is minimized after planning. Predictive methods structure delivery through a series of sequential phases with formal reviews and approvals, detailed upfront planning, and strict baseline control. This approach delivers value upon completion rather than through continuous or incremental releases, making it suitable for industries and projects where uncertainty is low and scope is stable.
Key Term: Predictive (Waterfall) Approach
A project management method that plans all scope, schedule, and costs in detail before work starts. The project follows fixed phases sequentially, and major changes are controlled through formal change processes.
Phases in Predictive Project Management
A core feature of predictive management is the breakdown of a project into clearly defined, sequential phases. Each phase focuses on a distinct subset of project activities, with outputs required before the next phase begins.
Typical Project Phases
- Feasibility / Initiation: Early analysis of business case, goals, benefits, and high-level requirements.
- Planning / Design: Creation of detailed requirements, scope, work breakdown structure (WBS), schedule, and resource and cost plans.
- Execution / Build: Performing the main project work, often divided by disciplines (e.g., development, construction, procurement).
- Testing / Quality Assurance: Verifying deliverables meet requirements and acceptance criteria.
- Deployment / Implementation: Delivering, commissioning, or launching the product or service.
- Closure: Final acceptance, documentation, lessons learned, and releasing resources.
Key Term: Phase Gate (Stage Gate)
A formal checkpoint at the end of a project phase requiring approval before proceeding to the next phase. Ensures deliverables are met and risks are reviewed.
How Phases Work
Each phase has specific objectives, defined deliverables, and usually ends with a decision point (e.g., a phase gate review), where progress, quality, and continued justification are confirmed. Phases are executed linearly; significant rework or returning to a previous phase is discouraged and tightly controlled.
Detailed Upfront Planning
Predictive projects depend on comprehensive planning before major work starts. This covers:
- Project scope, schedule, resources, budget, quality standards.
- Assigning responsibilities and documenting assumptions and constraints.
- Identifying risks and agreeing mitigation strategies.
All project baselines (scope, schedule, cost) are formally set at this stage, serving as fixed reference points for tracking and control.
Key Term: Baseline
The approved version of a project plan used to measure and control performance for scope, time, or cost.
Managing Change in Predictive Environments
Once baselines are set, changes are discouraged but may be submitted through a formal, documented process (often overseen by a change control board). Changes are assessed for impact on all project constraints and typically require sponsor or board approval. Allowing unchecked changes undermines predictability and threatens project objectives.
Control and Monitoring
During execution, progress is measured against the approved baselines. Deviations prompt corrective or preventive actions. The focus is on minimizing variance and ensuring project work remains aligned with original plans unless authorized change occurs.
Predictive vs. Other Development Life Cycles
The PMP exam expects you to distinguish between predictive, incremental, adaptive, and hybrid approaches:
- Predictive: All planning upfront, single final delivery.
- Incremental: Delivery made in set pieces; overall requirements clear, but delivered stepwise.
- Iterative: Plans and deliverables improve through repeated cycles; requirements are revisited each cycle.
- Adaptive (Agile): Scope evolves; only near-term work planned in detail.
- Hybrid: Mixes elements (commonly, predictive for part, adaptive/iterative for part).
Key Term: Hybrid Approach
A project life cycle combining predictive and adaptive practices to suit different aspects of the project.
When to Use Predictive
Choose predictive management when:
- Requirements are fully defined, stable, and unlikely to change.
- The project is low risk, complexity is manageable, and the product is similar to prior work.
- Stakeholders expect progress, cost, and schedule to be tightly controlled and measured.
Worked Example 1.1
A civil engineering company is contracted to build a new bridge. The requirements are completed before any construction starts, and planning includes every phase, from detailed design to procurement, construction, and inspection before handover. The client insists that major changes are not allowed after design is signed off. Which approach is being used, and how will changes be managed if new requirements emerge in the middle of construction?
Answer: Predictive (waterfall) project management is used. If new requirements emerge during construction, a formal change request is required. Such changes will be reviewed for impact on scope, budget, and schedule, and must be approved through a controlled process before work can proceed.
Worked Example 1.2
A project is structured into six phases: Feasibility, Design, Build, Test, Deploy, Close. At each phase end, the sponsor reviews progress and signs off to allow continuation. What are these review points called, and what is their main function?
Answer: These are phase gates (or stage gates). They serve as formal approval points to verify that deliverables and objectives have been met, assess risks and value, and authorize the project to move to the next phase.
Exam Warning
On the PMP exam, do not confuse predictive with adaptive/agile approaches. Predictive projects do not continuously reprioritize work. Baselines are set upfront, changes are the exception, and phases are followed in order. Questions may present scenarios requiring you to distinguish between these approaches.
Key Term: Project Baseline
The set of approved project plans for scope, schedule, or cost, used as fixed references for tracking progress and managing change.
Summary
Predictive project management is characterized by linear phases, comprehensive upfront planning, and strict change and baseline control. Each phase is approved before the next begins, and project success is measured by adherence to scope, schedule, and budget. This approach suits projects with stable requirements, low uncertainty, and a need for close oversight and predictability.
Key Point Checklist
This article has covered the following key knowledge points:
- Predictive project management plans all work and baselines in detail before execution.
- Projects are delivered in fixed, sequential phases (e.g., feasibility, design, build, test, deploy, close).
- Each phase ends with a phase gate—a formal approval point before advancing.
- Change is minimized; all changes after baselining require formal approval and integrated impact assessment.
- Project progress is tracked strictly against the initial baselines for scope, schedule, and cost.
- Predictive is most suitable for low-uncertainty, well-understood, stable projects.
- Predictive, incremental, iterative, adaptive, and hybrid life cycles are distinct and appear on the PMP exam.
Key Terms and Concepts
- Predictive (Waterfall) Approach
- Phase Gate (Stage Gate)
- Baseline
- Hybrid Approach
- Project Baseline
